From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org>
Census Monitoring Board Report Analyzes Funding
Consequences of Census Undercount
Plus: OMB Issues New Guidance on Tabulating Race Data;
Congress Continues Oversight of Census Operations;
Virginia Anti-Sampling Bill Headed for Governor's Desk
The Presidential members of the U.S. Census Monitoring Board released a
report last week analyzing the potential effect on the distribution of
federal funds of an undercount in the 2000 census. The firm of
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) prepared the report for the Democratic
members of the Board.
PwC studied eight federal programs representing over 82 percent of
federal grant programs (with obligations over $500 million in fiscal
year 1998) that rely on census data to determine the allocation of
funds. For these programs, the report concludes that 26 states and the
District of Columbia would lose an estimated $9.1 billion in funding
from 2002-2012 due to a projected undercount in Census 2000. 169
metropolitan areas would lose $11.1 billion over the same period,
according to the analysis, with the affected jurisdictions losing an
average of $3,391 for each person not counted in the census. PwC said
the projected funding losses are conservative estimates because it did
not review all population-based federal programs or any state programs
that distribute funds to counties and cities based on census data.
Gilbert Cassellas, Presidential Co-chair of the Census Monitoring Board,
said, "This study confirms that a 2000 undercount would result in
federal funds being sent to places where the need is not the greatest."
Board member Lorraine Green said at a press conference: "It is in the
economic self-interest of every American ... to participate in the
census." The other Presidential appointees on the Board are former
Commerce Under Secretary Everett Ehrlich and California Lieutenant
Governor Cruz Bustamante. Dr. Peter Merrill, director of PwC's National
Economic Consulting Group, oversaw preparation of the report.
PwC estimates that the net national undercount rate for Census 2000 will
be 1.75 percent of the population, or nearly 5 million people, a figure
that it called "conservative." The net undercount in 1990 was 1.59
percent. To estimate the potential misallocation of funds following the
2000 census, PwC applied the undercount rate for states, counties, and
cities for the 1990 census to the latest Census Bureau population
projections for 2000. (The methodology is described more fully in the
report.) The Bureau measured the 1990 undercount using a 'post
enumeration survey' conducted in the summer of 1990. PwC also assumed
current funding formulas for the programs studied, and funding levels
cited in the Clinton Administration's fiscal year 2000 Current Services
Budget.
The Census Monitoring Board was created in late 1997 pursuant to a
provision of the Census Bureau's funding bill for fiscal year 1998. The
Board has eight members: four appointed by President Clinton, two
appointed by the Speaker of the House of Representatives (then Rep. Newt
Gingrich), and two appointed by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott
(R-MS). The Board will operate through September 2001.
The PwC report, "Effect of Census 2000 Undercount on Federal Funding to
States and Local Areas, 2002-2012," is available through the
Presidential Board members' Web site, www.cmbp.gov
<http://www.cmbp.gov>, and the PricewaterhouseCoopers Web site,
www.pwcglobal.com <http://www.pwcglobal.com>. The Congressional Board
members, led by Co-chair Kenneth Blackwe ll, maintain their own Web site
at www.cmbc.gov <http://www.cmbc.gov>.
OMB issues guidance on tabulating race data: The Office of Management
and Budget (OMB) issued further guidance on tabulating race data under
its revised standards to federal agencies charged with monitoring and
enforcing civil rights laws. In a March 9th memo to agency heads, OMB
Director Jacob Lew noted that the Census Bureau would publish the full
range of 63 possible single and multiple race responses from Census
2000. He said OMB must ensure the "ability to monitor compliance with
laws that offer protections for those who historically have experienced
discrimination [as well as] minimize reporting burden for institutions
such as schools and businesses that report aggregate data on race to
federal agencies."
OMB modified the policy for collecting data on race and ethnicity in
October 1997; the new policy allows people to select more than one race
when they answer the census or fill out forms for employers or schools.
The five single race categories are American Indian or Alaska Native,
Asian, Black or African American, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific
Islander, and White. Hispanic is considered an ethnicity under the OMB
policy, and Hispanics may select one or more of the race options in
Census 2000 in addition to identifying themselves in a separate
"Hispanic origin" question.
For the purpose of reporting data to federal agencies, the OMB
guidelines call for aggregating the information by the five single race
categories; four double race combinations projected to be chosen most
frequently; other multiple race combinations that comprise more than one
percent of the population in the relevant jurisdiction (as determined by
the responsible agency); and a balance category for all other responses.
For civil rights monitoring and enforcement, federal agencies will
allocate multiple race responses in several ways: combinations of one
minority race and White are allocated to the minority race; combinations
that include two or more minority races are allocated to the race that
is cited as the basis for discrimination, in the case of an individual
complaint of discrimination. In cases that require an assessment of
disparate impact or discriminatory patterns (such as the employment
record of a particular company), the enforcement agency will review the
patterns based on alternative allocations to each of the minority groups
reported.
Interested stakeholders may contact OMB's Office of Information and
Regulatory Affairs/Statistical Policy Office, at 202/395-3093, or visit
the Federal Statistics Briefing Rooms, at www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr
<http://www.whitehouse.gov/fsbr>, for further information.
Congressional oversight continues: Census Bureau Director Kenneth
Prewitt vigorously defended his agency against charges by a House
subcommittee chairman that Congress, the General Accounting Office
(GAO), and other external watchdogs are denied timely access to
information about census operations and local census facilities. At a
March 8th hearing of the Subcommittee on the Census, Dr. Prewitt drew a
distinction between "proper oversight" and "managing the census," noting
that the GAO had recently requested "a terabyte" of information equal to
50 million telephone books.
Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) said the Census Bureau "has
built unnecessary barriers" to gathering information that "will affect
respect for the census." He said Bureau guidelines for visits to local
census offices by congressional staff, Census Monitoring Board
representatives, and other official observers, "border on arrogant."
Dr. Prewitt replied that the guidelines apply only to field office
visits that involve operational staff, and that they help the Bureau
accommodate requests on a systematic basis. The director pointed to a
recent letter from Census Monitoring Board Republican Co-chair Kenneth
Blackwell, outlining plans for his staff to visit 31 local census
offices in March. He said the Bureau has responded to every request
from its overseers.
Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), the panel's senior Democrat, said she
wanted to "focus on the good news." "[T]he 2000 census operations are
on schedule and as of today there are no major problems," she said in
her opening remarks. In response to the chairman's concerns about
access to Census Bureau information, Rep. Maloney cautioned against
"over zealous oversight," saying the director was being criticized for
an inability to answer a large number of requests, not for his
implementation of the census.
Rep. Miller also raised several operational concerns, such as the
apparent confusion in some English-speaking households over why the
advance notification mailing included a return envelope. Dr. Prewitt
acknowledged that the failure to explain the second envelope to those
not requesting a foreign language form was an "error in judgment," but
noted that only a few hundred households out of 115 million recipients
had complained. The director told panel members that while there are
"numerous and constant issues that present problems" during the census,
"we have not yet hit a problem that puts the census at risk."
The Census Subcommittee will hold its next hearing to review the status
of census operations on Tuesday, March 14, at 2:00 p.m. in room 2203
Rayburn House Office Building. Representatives of the U.S. General
Accounting Office will testify.
State legislative activities update: The Virginia State Senate narrowly
approved a bill last week prohibiting the use of statistically corrected
census data for redrawing congressional and General Assembly district
boundaries. The House of Delegates passed the same bill in February.
The measure awaits a signature or veto by Governor James S. Gilmore III
(R), who has previously voiced opposition to using sampling methods in
the census.
Virginia is one of 16 states subject to section 5 of the 1965 Voting
Rights Act, which requires approval from the U.S. Department of Justice
or a federal district court for any change to state election laws.
States covered by section 5 must show that the change does not diminish
the right to vote of racial, ethnic, or language minorities, before the
new law can take effect.
Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be
directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at
terriann2k(a)aol.com. For copies of previous News Alerts and other
information, use our web site www.census2000.org
<http://www.census2000.org>. Please direct all requests to receive News
Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000
Initiative at Census2000(a)ccmc.org or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to
circulate this information to colleagues and other interested
individuals.
The CTPP Working Group expects a revised version of TAZ-UP Software and TAZ
verification TIGER/Line files to be ready for shipping in April 2000.
Participants will have one month to review the file and return it with any
corrections to the Census Bureau Geography Division. At this time, we would
like to ensure that your addresses and contact names are correctly maintained
in the FHWA database.
Attached are pdf and Excel versions containing the names and addresses of
agencies that will receive the TAZ-UP verification files. **Please** go
through the file to ensure that your name and address are correct. Please
e-mail any corrections to Nanda Srinivasan at ctpp(a)fhwa.dot.gov, or by
replying to this e-mail.
If you/your organization submitted a TAZ file to the Census Bureau, but the
name does not appear on this list, please call Nanda Srinivasan immediately at
(202) 366-5021.
Thank You
Nanda Srinivasan
The first Workplace Update CDs shipped yesterday via overnight carrier from ESRI
headquartes in Redlands, CA. Disc 1 contains the Work-UP software extension to
ArcView, Tiger/Line Shape files, and geocoded and ungeocoded employer files for
counties in the six New England states. Copies of the other 29 CDs will follow
in the next 2 weeks. The attached Excel 4.0 worksheet file shows how the states
are bundled on the CDs. We are shipping each agency the CDs they will need to
review their area.
NOTE: Geography Division here at Census has agreed to continue to accept
Work-UP files until May 31, 2000. It will help our processing schedule if
agencies can return the files by the end of April, but we will continue to
accept them through May. We will not accept any files after May 31.
We have created a link on the TRB Subcommttee web site to copies of the Work-UP
User Guide, if you would like to get an advance look at the application before
your discs arrive. It is available in Adobe Acrobat PDF format and as a MS-Word
97 document. Contact Nanda Srinivasan at FHWA (202) 366-5000 or at
nanda.srinivasan(a)fhwa.dot.gov if you need a different format. The TRB
Subcommittee on Census Data for Transportation Planning web site is at
http://www.mcs.com/~berwyned/census/.
The direct link to the Work-UP page is
http://www.mcs.com/~berwyned/census/workup.
(See attached file: wupstcds.xls)
Last week the CTPP Planning group was discussing the forthcoming TAZ
verification software and process. The software that will be used
will be similar to the TAZ-UP software that was distributed last
summer. It will run on PC versions of ArcView.
The purpose of the verification process will be to check the TAZ's
that were submitted against what got coded into TIGER. In the
ideal, the TAZ plan that was submitted this past Fall should match
what was put into TIGER so any changes would be minimal.
During the discussion of the TAZ verification software it dawned on
me that several regions used non PC-based ArcView processes in
creating their original TAZ plans. Since last weeks meeting I have
talked to few folks who used other than TAZ-UP procedures and they
did not think they would have any problems reading the new TIGER
file and checking their TAZ boundaries.
Although the CTPP planning group has a list of non PC-based ArcView
users in its files, I would like to make sure that it is complete.
If you submitted a TAZ plan and were NOT a PC-based ArcView user
please send me a short email to let me know.
Thanks
Ed Christopher
Chair--TRB Subcommittee on Census Data
for Transportation Planning