I would look at the auto per household ratio or auto per person ratio from the CTPP 2006-2008 base data and use that to estimate future autos by TAZ.
I think you will be better off using ratios tied to population or households so that the growth in autos at the TAZ level will keep pace with the growth in households and/or population. You wouldn’t want a TAZ to have only 10% growth in autos if the household data shows a growth of 50% for that same TAZ.
Todd A. Steiss, AICP, GISP
Senior Planner
Parsons Brinckerhoff
121 West Trade Street, Suite 1950
Charlotte, NC 28202
Direct: 704-342-5411
Main: 704-342-5401
Mobile: 704-906-7706
Fax: 704-342-8472
Email: steiss(a)pbworld.com<mailto:steiss(a)pbworld.com>
From: ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net [mailto:ctpp-news-bounces(a)chrispy.net] On Behalf Of Sulabh Aryal
Sent: Monday, February 03, 2014 11:46 AM
To: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net
Subject: [CTPP] (no subject)
Hello everyone,
We here in Richmond MPO are developing the Socioeconomic data for our Long Range Transportation plan. One of the important components of the data is the total number of automobiles (CTPP Table B111103) by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). We have in the past used both the CTPP data and the Virginia DMV registration data to calculate autos by TAZs.
Here are the problems we are facing this time around. The base year for our socioeconomic data is 2012. CTPP data is a rolling average from 2006-2010. How would one calculate the estimates for the year 2012 taking CTPP 2006-2008 as the base data? Assuming we do a straight line projection, how many years do we need to project the CTPP data to get the estimates for the year 2012? In other words, do we consider the CTPP data from year 2008 ( which is the mid-year) and project the data by 4 years to get the 2012 estimates or do we take the year 2010 ( which is the end year) and project the data by 2 years to get the 2012 estimates.
Any insight would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Sulabh Aryal
Associate Planner
Richmond Regional Planning District Commission
9211 Forest Hill Avenue, Suite 200 Richmond, VA 23235
Phone: 804.323.2033 3 Fax: 804.323.2025
saryal(a)richmondregional.org<mailto:saryal(a)richmondregional.org> 3 www.richmondregional.org<http://www.richmondregional.org>
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Sulabh,
If you have the VA registration data geocoded to block so that you can
aggregate to TAZ, and the dataset is not too messed up with post office
boxes, etc., and you can screen out the business registrations, I'd go just
with that dataset and not even use the CTPP.
The MOEs (margins of error) at the TAZ level are enormous, to say nothing
of the timing problem that you discuss. Why bother?
Patty Becker
On Mon, Feb 3, 2014 at 11:46 AM, Sulabh Aryal
<saryal(a)richmondregional.org>wrote:
> Hello everyone,
>
>
>
> We here in Richmond MPO are developing the Socioeconomic data for our Long
> Range Transportation plan. One of the important components of the data is
> the total number of automobiles (CTPP Table B111103) by Traffic Analysis
> Zones (TAZs). We have in the past used both the CTPP data and the Virginia
> DMV registration data to calculate autos by TAZs.
>
>
>
> Here are the problems we are facing this time around. The base year for
> our socioeconomic data is 2012. CTPP data is a rolling average from
> 2006-2010. How would one calculate the estimates for the year 2012 taking
> CTPP 2006-2008 as the base data? Assuming we do a straight line projection,
> how many years do we need to project the CTPP data to get the estimates for
> the year 2012? In other words, do we consider the CTPP data from year 2008
> ( which is the mid-year) and project the data by 4 years to get the 2012
> estimates or do we take the year 2010 ( which is the end year) and project
> the data by 2 years to get the 2012 estimates.
>
>
>
> Any insight would be appreciated.
>
>
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> *Sulabh Aryal*
>
> *Associate Planner*
>
>
>
> Richmond Regional Planning District Commission
>
> 9211 Forest Hill Avenue, Suite 200 Richmond, VA 23235
>
> Phone: 804.323.2033 3 Fax: 804.323.2025
>
> saryal(a)richmondregional.org 3 www.richmondregional.org
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> ctpp-news mailing list
> ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net
> https://www.chrispy.net/mailman/listinfo/ctpp-news
>
>
--
Patricia C. (Patty) Becker
APB Associates/Southeast Michigan Census Council (SEMCC)
28300 Franklin Rd, Southfield, MI 48034
office: 248-354-6520
home:248-355-2428
pbecker(a)umich.edu
Hello everyone,
We here in Richmond MPO are developing the Socioeconomic data for our Long Range Transportation plan. One of the important components of the data is the total number of automobiles (CTPP Table B111103) by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs). We have in the past used both the CTPP data and the Virginia DMV registration data to calculate autos by TAZs.
Here are the problems we are facing this time around. The base year for our socioeconomic data is 2012. CTPP data is a rolling average from 2006-2010. How would one calculate the estimates for the year 2012 taking CTPP 2006-2008 as the base data? Assuming we do a straight line projection, how many years do we need to project the CTPP data to get the estimates for the year 2012? In other words, do we consider the CTPP data from year 2008 ( which is the mid-year) and project the data by 4 years to get the 2012 estimates or do we take the year 2010 ( which is the end year) and project the data by 2 years to get the 2012 estimates.
Any insight would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Sulabh Aryal
Associate Planner
Richmond Regional Planning District Commission
9211 Forest Hill Avenue, Suite 200 Richmond, VA 23235
Phone: 804.323.2033 3 Fax: 804.323.2025
saryal(a)richmondregional.org<mailto:saryal(a)richmondregional.org> 3 www.richmondregional.org<http://www.richmondregional.org>
