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by ed c

this report, "2000 Census: Preparations for Dress Rehearsal Leave Many Unanswered Questions (Chapter Report, 03/26/98, GAO/GGD-98-74)" has been out since March but i just got an opportunity to read it. http://www.gao.gov/monthly.list/march/mar9810.htm

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] JOIN THE URBAN MOBILITY FORUM / MAILINGLIST: PRESENT DISCUSSION INVOLVES YEAR 2000 PROBLEM

by Cindy Kerckhoffs

----------- Sorry for crossed essages -------------- Dear Urban Mobility Professional, As you are aware I have been doing research regarding the Y2K problem in relation to the mobility branch. In the Urban Mobility professional (UMP: http://www.mobility-net.com/ump/issue1.htm) I already mentioned that so far little attention has been given to the Y2K problem in relation to Urban Mobility which means that a lot of companies/organizations are not Year 2000 compliant. The articles published in the UMP confirm this statement. For example the article written by Martyn Emery about the study on the infrastructure robustness of the Greater London Area in the context of the Year 2000 Computing Crisis, in which he concluded that the Greater London Area scored a 49 out of 100 in their scale for Year 2000 readiness. It is therefore that I explicitly ask you as being an Urban Mobility Professional, to subscribe and participate in the Y2K Forum-discussion (http://www.mobility-net.com/forum/) (NEW: Mailinglist functionality included) and maybe contradict the fears Mr Martin Bangemann told a news conference: A lot of people don't seem to be worrying their pretty heads about it" (2000-problem), . (Reuters, February 25, 1998). I am looking forward to see your reactions. Cindy Kerckhoffs

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Scientific American Article on Sampling

by Chuck Purvis

The following is the full text of an article on Census 2000 Sampling from the July 1998 issue of Scientific American. ************************************************************** http://www.sciam.com:80/1998/0798issue/0798infocus.html ************************************************************** Statistical Uncertainty Researchers warn that continued debate over the 2000 census could doom it to failure Censuses in the U.S. have always seemed straightforward_it's just a head count, right?_and have always proved, in practice, to be just the opposite: logistically complex, politically contentious and statistically inaccurate. Clerks were still tabulating the results of the 1880 census eight years later. The 1920 count revealed such a dramatic shift in population from farms to cities that Congress refused to honor the results. And a mistake in doling out electoral college seats based on the 1870 census handed Rutherford B. Hayes the presidency when Samuel J. Tilden should in fact have been awarded the most votes. But after 1940 the accuracy of the census at least improved each decade, so that only 1.2 percent of the population slipped past the enumerators in 1980, according to an independent demographic analysis. That trend toward increasing accuracy reversed in 1990, however. The Census Bureau paid 25 percent more per home to count people than it had in 1980, and its hundreds of thousands of workers made repeated attempts to collect information on every person in every house_what is called a full enumeration. Nevertheless, the number of residents left off the rolls for their neighborhood rose to 15 million, while 11 million were counted where they should not have been. The net undercount of four million amounted to 1.8 percent of the populace. Less than 2 percent might be an acceptable margin of error were it not that some groups of people were missed more than others. A quality-check survey found that blacks, for example, were undercounted by 4.4 percent; rural renters, by 5.9 percent. Because census data are put to so many important uses_from redrawing voting districts and siting schools to distributing congressional seats and divvying up some $150 billion in annual federal spending_all agree that this is a problem. In response, Congress unanimously passed a bill in 1991 commissioning the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to study ways to reduce cost and error in the census. The expert panel arrived at an unequivocal conclusion: the only way to reduce the undercount of all racial groups to acceptable levels at an acceptable cost is to introduce scientific sampling into the April 1, 2000, census and to give up the goal of accounting directly for every individual. Other expert groups, including a special Department of Commerce task force, two other NAS panels, the General Accounting Office and both statisticians' and sociologists' professional societies, have since added their strong endorsement of a census that incorporates random sampling of some kind. After some waffling, the Census Bureau finally settled last year on a plan to use two kinds of surveys. The first will begin after most people have mailed back the census forms sent to every household. Simulations predict that perhaps one third of the population will neglect to fill out a form_more in some census tracts (clusters of adjacent blocks, housing 2,000 to 7,000 people) than in others, of course. To calculate the remainder of the population, census workers will visit enough randomly selected homes to ensure that at least 90 percent of the households in each tract are accounted for directly. So if only 600 out of 1,000 homes in a given tract fill out forms, enumerators will knock on the doors of random nonrespondents until they add another 300 to the tally. The number of denizens in the remaining 100 houses can then be determined by extrapolation, explains Howard R. Hogan, who leads the statistical design of the census. After the initial count is nearly complete, a second wave of census takers will fan out across the country to conduct a much smaller quality-control survey of 750,000 homes. Armed with a more meticulous (and much more expensive) list of addresses than the census used, this so-called integrated coverage measurement (ICM) will be used to gauge how many people in each socioeconomic strata were overcounted or undercounted in the first stage. The results will be used to inflate or deflate the counts for each group in order to arrive at final census figures that are closer to the true population in each region. "We endorsed the use of sampling [in the first stage] for two reasons," reports James Trussell, director of population research at Princeton University and a member of two NAS panels on the census. "It saves money, and it at least offers the potential for increased accuracy, because you could use a smaller, much better trained force of enumerators." The Census Bureau puts the cost of the recommended, statistics-based plan at about $4 billion. A traditional full enumeration, it estimates, would cost up to $800 million more. The ICM survey is important, says Alan M. Zaslavsky, a statistician at Harvard Medical School, because it will reduce the lopsided undercounting of certain minorities. "If we did a traditional enumeration," he comments, "then we would in effect be saying one more time that it is okay to undercount blacks by 3 or 4 percent_we've done it in the past, and we'll do it again." Republican leaders in Congress do not like the answers given by such experts. Two representatives and their advocates, including House Speaker Newt Gingrich, filed suits to force the census takers to attempt to enumerate everyone. Oral arguments in one trial were set for June; the cases may not be decided until 1999. The Republicans' main concern, explains Liz Podhoretz, an aide to the House subcommittee on the census, is "that the ICM is five times bigger than the [quality-check survey performed] in 1990, and they plan to do it in half the time with less qualified people. And it disturbs them that statisticians could delete a person's census data" to adjust for overcounted socioeconomic groups. Although the great majority of researchers support the new census plan, there are several well-respected dissenters. "I think the 2000 design is going to have more error than the 1990 design," says David A. Freedman of the University of California at Berkeley. The errors to worry about, he argues, are not the well-understood errors introduced by sampling but systematic mistakes made in collecting and processing the data. As an example, Freedman points out that a computer coding error made in the quality check during the last census would have erased one million people from the country and erroneously moved a congressional seat from Pennsylvania to Arizona had the survey data been used to correct the census. That mistake was not caught until after the results were presented to Congress. "Small mistakes can have large effects on total counts," adds Kenneth W. Wachter, another Berkeley statistician. "There are ways to improve the accuracy without sampling," Podhoretz asserts. "Simplifying the form and offering it in several languages, as is planned, should help. They should use [presumably more familiar] postal workers as enumerators. They should use administrative records, such as welfare rolls." "That shows appalling ignorance," Trussell retorts. "Our first report addressed that argument head-on and concluded that you cannot get there by doing it the old way. You're just wasting a lot of money." Representative Dan Miller of Florida was planning to introduce a bill in June that would make it illegal to delete any nonduplicated census form from the count. Such a restriction would derail the census, Trussell warns. "The idea behind sampling is not to eliminate anybody but to arrive at the best estimate of what the actual population is. Surely the goal is not just to count as many people as possible?" As the debate drags on, the brinkmanship is making statisticians nervous. Podhoretz predicts that "some kind of a showdown is likely next spring." That may be too late. "You don't want to redesign a census at the last minute," Freedman says. "I think the two sides should just agree to flip a coin," Trussell says. "To think next year about what we're going to do is madness." Wachter concurs: "We must not let the battle over sampling methods destroy the whole census." Otherwise April 1, 2000, may make all involved look like April fools. --W. Wayt Gibbs in San Francisco ****************************************************************

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Census News Alert 2000

by ed c

Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 12:29:33 -0400 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> June 8, 1998 NEWS ALERT Census Monitoring Board Sets Ground Rules, Divides Money, In Effort To Establish Bipartisan Role Sampling Opponents Criticize President's Houston Census Event The Census Monitoring Board, established in a funding bill last fall as part of the so-called compromise agreement over the use of sampling in the census, held its first meeting on June 3 in a House of Representatives meeting room. All eight Board members gave brief opening remarks, with some suggesting that they were skeptical of the Census Bureau's plan to supplement traditional counting methods with statistical sampling and others stating that the census could not be improved without adding new methods. The Board discussed administrative matters for most of the session, deciding how to divvy up its annual $4 million budget, hire staff, and keep track of spending. Board members agreed to set aside $1 million for joint professional staff and projects, with the remaining funds divided equally between the President's appointees and those appointed by the Republican congressional leadership. They put off adopting rules for how the joint funds would be spent but agreed in principle that all members would keep the Board informed about the substance and purpose of projects undertaken independently by either side. The Board also adopted a recommendation by Republican co-chair Kenneth Blackwell to let the Government Printing Office (GPO) handle the Board's accounting after agreeing to a request by Democratic co-chair Tony Coelho that information about expenditures be subject to the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). (As an agency of the Legislative Branch, GPO is not subject to FOIA by law. The law creating the Board had designated the General Services Administration as the fiscal agent; GSA is subject to FOIA.) Board members were sworn in as official Census Bureau employees, giving them access to confidential information collected by the Bureau. In his opening remarks, Mr. Blackwell said that he had tried to meet with Acting Census Bureau Director James Holmes earlier that day but had been rebuffed. Mr. Blackwell said the encounter did not bode well for establishing a cooperative relationship with the Bureau. Presidentially-appointed Board member Everett Ehrlich responded that Mr. Holmes had received the meeting request only two days before and had tried to notify Mr. Blackwell that he could not be available due to previous commitments. The Board has set July 8 as the tentative date for its next meeting. Future meetings will be announced in the Federal Register and open to the public unless the Board votes to close the meeting. Administration activities: President Clinton made his first extended public comments about the 2000 census on June 2, visiting the Magnolia Multi-Service Center WIC facility in Houston, TX, and participating in a roundtable discussion with local civic, elected and religious leaders. Roundtable participants discussed the importance of an accurate census to transportation, housing, health and child care, rural development, education, and other policies and programs. Commerce Deputy Secretary Robert Mallett, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), co-chair of the congressional census caucus, and Rep. Tom Sawyer (D-OH), former chairman of the House census oversight subcommittee, accompanied the President to Houston. The President said he wanted "[to] put a human face on the census and its consequences" and that "an inaccurate census distorts our understanding of the needs of our people [and] diminishes the quality of life not only for them, but for all the rest of us as well." He said the Census Bureau must use "the most up-to-date, scientific, cost-effective methods" to take an accurate census. "This is not a political issue, this is an American issue," Clinton said, noting that it was "unfortunate" that some in Congress oppose the use of sampling to count the population. The President acknowledged the difficulty in explaining why sampling can help produce a more accurate count to the general public. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Census, and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), head of the House Republican Conference, both issued written statements in response to the President's Houston remarks. Rep. Miller accused the President of "peddling statistical snake-oil." "We've heard enough of his 'political' science. Where is the 'empirical' science?" Rep. Miller asked. Rep. Boehner also charged the President with politicizing the census and said that sampling "corrupts a basic sense of fairness by treating people as numbers that can be estimated, rather than individuals who have a right to be counted." Race and ethnicity update: The Census Bureau's Advisory Committees held a joint meeting on June 3 to discuss the development of guidelines for tabulating multiple responses to the race question in the 2000 census and other Federal data collection activities. Census Bureau staff presented several guideline options, noting that there were 63 possible combinations of reporting responses to the race question, including the six individual categories established by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Tabulation options include "collapsing" the information into fewer categories for some combinations; reassigning multiple responses, either randomly or according to predetermined "priorities," to the original, individual categories; and reporting all combinations with each race identified in the combination, producing totals that exceed 100 percent. Advisory Committee participants raised several issues for further consideration and research, including maintaining the comparability of data over time, identification of households (as opposed to individuals) by race, and protecting confidentiality at the smaller geographic levels, particularly when demographic or economic characteristics are tabulated by race. An example of the latter problem would be reporting the number of households identified as Black/Asian/White with incomes under $25,000 for a group of census blocks; the incidence of these combined characteristics may be too small to protect the privacy of respondents. Only 15 racial categories will be reported for this year's Census Dress Rehearsal while the Bureau and a Federal interagency task force continue their research. OMB expects to publish final tabulation guidelines by next winter. Legal update: A three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia will hear oral arguments in the case of U.S. House of Representatives v. U.S. Department of Commerce on Thursday, June 11, beginning at 10:00 a.m. The Federal courthouse is located at 3rd Street and Constitution Avenue, N.W. Los Angeles City Attorney James Hahn and several other parties that have joined the lawsuit in support of the Census Bureau's 2000 census plan will hold a press conference at 9:30 a.m. on the steps of the courthouse to discuss the key issues in the case, which centers around the constitutionality of using sampling in the census. Census preparations: The Census Bureau has chosen its sites for the data capture centers, where millions of questionnaires will be processed during the 2000 census. The sites are Baltimore County, MD; Pamona, CA; and Phoenix, CA. Census forms will also be processed at the Bureau's permanent data capture facility in Jeffersonville, IN. The facilities will be built and operated by TRW, which was awarded the contract earlier this year. TRW also will recruit and train temporary workers to staff the facilities. Stakeholder activities: The 2000 Census Advisory Committee to the Secretary of Commerce will hold its quarterly meeting on June 11 - 12, at the Francis Amasa Walker Conference Center, Bureau of the Census, 4700 Silver Hill Road, Suitland, MD, beginning at 8:45 a.m. each day. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 434-8756 or, by e-mail, at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Census 2000 News

by ed c

Subject: Census 2000 News Alert Date: Mon, 1 Jun 1998 14:50:50 -0400 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> Following is the copy from the most recent Census 2000 News Alert. If you have any problems, please call me at 202/326-8728. June 1, 1998 NEWS ALERT D.C. Court Lets Los Angeles, Other Cities Join Census Lawsuit Census Monitoring Board Set To Meet A federal court has ruled that the City of Los Angeles, 19 other states, cities, and counties, and 19 Members of Congress may officially join the lawsuit brought by House Speaker Newt Gingrich to prevent the use of sampling in the 2000 census. Los Angeles had sought to intervene in U.S. House of Representatives v. U.S. Department of Commerce in support of the Census Bureau's 2000 census plan. As "intervenor-defendants," Los Angeles and the other stakeholder parties argue that the Constitution contemplates an accurate census, not a particular method for achieving the population count. Oral arguments before a special three-judge panel of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia will be heard on June 11, beginning at 10:00 a.m. Census Monitoring Board update: The Census Monitoring Board, established in the Census Bureau's current year funding bill, will hold its first meeting on Wednesday, June 3, at 2:00 p.m., in Room 2203 Rayburn House Office Building. The meeting is open to the public. Funding update: House appropriators are ready to start drafting the 13 funding bills that will keep Federal agencies running in Fiscal Year 1999 (FY99), which begins on October 1. Before heading home for the Memorial Day break, the Committee on Appropriations divided up $532.8 billion in discretionary funds that will be available for Federal programs next year. The Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State, and The Judiciary and Related Agencies, which covers the Census Bureau, received $32.34 billion, almost $200 million more than its counterpart Senate panel but still $1.04 billion less than the Administration requested. The Senate subcommittee will divide $32.16 billion among the diverse programs in the Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State and several other independent agencies, as well as the Federal judiciary. The Administration requested $848 million for 2000 census activities in FY99. Administration activities: President Clinton will shine a spotlight on the importance of an accurate census when he visits Houston, Texas, tomorrow. The President will participate in a roundtable discussion on key census issues with local political and civic leaders. Important administrative note: Census 2000 Initiative project consultant TerriAnn Lowenthal has a new e-mail address, effective immediately. You may now direct questions to TerriAnn at <terriann2K(a)aol.com>. Also, effective June 26, TerriAnn can be reached at a new work number, 202/484-2270. We'll remind you of this change as the date approaches. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 434-8756 or, by e-mail, at <terriann2K(a)aol.com>. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] News Alert

by ed c

Subject: Census 2000 News Alert Date: Fri, 22 May 1998 12:04:21 -0400 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> May 22, 1998 NEWS ALERT Subcommittee Hears Nearly Unanimous Support For Census 'Long Form' in 2000 Conservative Organizations Form Coalition To Prevent Sampling In Census At an oversight hearing yesterday to review the proposed 'short' and 'long' questionnaires for the 2000 census, a parade of witnesses representing a diverse range of stakeholders told legislators that demographic and economic data collected in the census were vital to support decisionmaking, planning, and resource allocation by local governments, community-based service providers, and private business. They noted that the $400 million cost of including a long form in the census was a modest investment, given the nearly $200 billion in Federal funds alone that are allocated each year to state and local governments on the basis of census data. Supporters of the long form also suggested that it was not responsible for the drop in census participation, since the number of questions has been reduced over the past few decades while response rates continued to fall. The House Subcommittee on the Census heard testimony from Rep. Constance Morella (R-MD), sponsor of legislation (H. Con. Res. 246) in support of continuing the census long form in 2000; Rep. Charles Canady (R-FL), sponsor of a bill (H.R. 2081) to require the collection of data on family caregivers in the census; David Clawson, American Association of State Transportation and Highway Organizations; Helen Samhan, Working Group on Ancestry in the U.S. Census; James Hubbard, The American Legion; David Crowe, representing the Coalition to Preserve Census Data, a group of industry and business associations; Wen-Yen Chen, Formosan Association for Public Affairs; and Marlo Lewis, Jr., Competitive Enterprise Institute, a self-described public interest group that promotes private voluntary alternatives to government programs and regulations. Only Mr. Lewis spoke against the continued collection of demographic and socio-economic data in the census, saying that the long form contributes to public distrust of government and that at a minimum, response should be voluntary. Mr. Chen proposed that the race question include Taiwanese as a separate category that respondents can check off. In 1990, the Census Bureau did not tabulate Taiwanese as a separate race, citing concerns by the State Department that diplomatic relations with China might be harmed. Respondents who received a long form could indicate Taiwanese background on the ancestry question. Subcommittee Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) said: "There's no question that we'll have a long form in 2000." He did not indicate whether he supported the range of questions proposed by the Census Bureau or maintaining the sample size of 17 percent (an average of one in six) of housing units. The chairman said he intends to hold additional hearings on the Census Bureau's proposal to eliminate the long form in 2010 by implementing a continuous survey (known as the American Community Survey, or ACS) throughout the decade to collect the same range of information and produce annual estimates for every jurisdiction. The panel's senior Democrat, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), held up a copy of USA Today with all of the articles cut out that referenced data derived directly or indirectly from the census long form. Most of the front page was gone, as were several other articles and one editorial. Rep. Vince Snowbarger (R-KS) asked several witnesses why local governments couldn't do a better job at collecting data on their own communities. Advocacy campaign against sampling: About a dozen organizations generally associated with conservative causes announced the formation of the Citizens for an Honest Count Coalition at a press conference on Capitol Hill yesterday. Led by Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), the organizations announced a grassroots campaign to "save the 2000 Census from political manipulation by the Clinton Administration" by preventing the use of sampling to conduct the count. ATR also opposes continuation of the long form questionnaire. Among the groups announcing their involvement in the effort were the Washington Legal Foundation, the Law Enforcement Alliance of America (LEAA), and the 60 Plus Association, which describes itself as a conservative alternative to the American Association of Retired Persons (AARP). 60 Plus said that sampling "will hurt senior citizens," who may find themselves "subject to large tax increases [because] federal aid [will] shift to the areas (e.g. urban areas) which were 'statistically sampled'." Rep. Carolyn Maloney, co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on the Census, said in a written statement that "a simple look at the background of the groups involved shows that they all represent one, partisan group: the Republican National Committee." She called the new coalition a "farce" and "partisanship at its most damaging." Maloney said that ATR received funds from the Republican National Committee during the 1996 election campaign and the LEAA was founded with funds from the National Rifle Association. Appropriations update: Congress continues to proceed slowly on legislation that will fund the Federal government in Fiscal Year 1999, with the House falling well behind the usual schedule for budget and funding bills. The Senate approved its version of a budget resolution for FY99 in April and its appropriations panel has now set broad spending levels for each of 13 budget categories. The Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State and The Judiciary, which funds the Census Bureau, received an allocation of $32.2 billion, about $1.2 billion (3.6 percent) below the President's request of $33.4 billion. The subcommittee must now draft and approve a bill that divides the $32.2 billion among all of the agencies and programs under its jurisdiction, ranging from weather programs to criminal justice activities to State Department priorities to the census. In the House this week, the Budget Committee cleared a FY99 budget resolution that provides broad guidance to the appropriators on spending and revenues. Congress is supposed to approve a budget resolution each year by April 15 but often misses the legal deadline. The House Appropriations Committee is poised to divvy up among its subcommittees the $1.7 trillion that will be available for Federal programs in FY99, even before the full House approves the tardy budget measure. Committee roster change: Rep. Ron Lewis (R-KY) has been appointed to take the place of Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-IL) on the Subcommittee on the Census, House Committee on Government Reform and Oversight. Rep. Lewis joined the full committee recently to fill a vacancy created by the death of Rep. Steven Schiff (R-NM), who recently succumbed to cancer. Stakeholder activities: The National Urban League, a member of the 2000 Census Advisory Committee, co-hosted a meeting with Census Bureau officials on May 5 in New York City to discuss ways of promoting the 2000 census in the African American community. Urban League President Hugh Price spoke to program participants, who also heard from Acting Census Bureau Director James Holmes and New York Regional Director Tony Farthing. The Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc. hosted a discussion about the census at its annual policy conference on May 19 in Washington, D.C. Rep. Donald Payne (D-NJ), Census Bureau Associate Director for Field Operations Marvin Raines, and Census 2000 Initiative project consultant TerriAnn Lowenthal discussed ways that civic organizations can help ensure an accurate census in 2000. Worth reading: An article in the May/June 1998 issue of The Sciences,gives a particularly comprehensive and clear picture of how the census is taken, and the major issues involved in achieving an accurate count. Please contact Henry Griggs at the Communications Consortium Media Center (<hgriggs(a)ccmc.org>) is you cannot obtain a copy on your own. Coming soon to a web site near you! The Census 2000 Initiative is nearing completion of its web site to keep census stakeholders informed about key policy issues affecting the next count. The site will include recent News Alerts, an archive of past News Alerts, fact sheets on key issues, and links to stakeholder organizations involved in census activities or issues. If your organization (nonpartisan) maintains a web site with census-related information, please let us know. Watch for details about the Initiative's site in future News Alerts. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 434-8756 or, by e-mail, at <TerriAnnL(a)aol.com>. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Iguana White Paper

by mail＠iguanaware.com

Iguana Incorporated would like to announce availability of a new white paper which is called "TRANSPORTATION ANALYSIS IN THE INFORMATION AGE". The paper describes issues and opportunities in tranportation planning and analysis related to the availability and use of information technology such as the Internet and the World Wide Web. It provides an informative summary of the impacts of such technology, and describes how Iguana software enables the planner to take advantage of it. To view or download the paper click <http://www.iguanaware.com/web_htm/res&proj/res02.htm> or visit our web site at the address listed below. Live demonstrations of IguanaWebWorks will be available shortly using a standard browser interface. Feedback is appreciated. You can also view our first newsletter (February 1998) at <http://www.iguanaware.com/web_htm/news&press/feb27-98.pdf>. The newsletter is in PDF format, which requires the Adobe Acrobat Reader for viewing and printing. Acrobat Reader is available for free at <http://www.adobe.com/>. Edward F. Granzow Iguana Incorporated ph - (916) 546-3113 fax - (916) 546-3119 email - <mailto:efgranzow(a)iguanaware.com> web - <http://www.iguanaware.com/>

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Re:American Scientist Article on Sampling & Census2000

by ed c

Chuck-- I saw Pat Hu last week and she knows Tommy Wright. She had copies of the article and gave me one. I can certainly make it available if someone wants it. I can slip you one in Portland and bring some for Seattle. I think the article is a must read for anyone who is interested in understanding the mechanical concepts behind "ratio estimation" with a "dual-system estimation" process. It is the kind of article that will be kept inside my textbooks dealing with survey design. And well worth a read---just don't ask me to re-explain the techniques. <g> Thanks for putting us on the scent of the article. ed christopher Chuck Purvis (MTC) wrote: > Dear CTPP-Newsers: > > I came across this reference to an article on "Sampling and Census > 2000: The Concepts" published by the "American Scientist" magazine. > Unfortunately, a full text of this article is not provided. The > article is by Dr. Tommy Wright of the Census Bureau. An abstract, and > a discussion forum, is at: > > http://www.amsci.org/amsci/articles/98articles/wright.html > > If anybody can find a copy of this journal, a few of us might be > interested in reading it. (Or maybe we could get a copy from Dr. > Wright?) > > Chuck Purvis > ******************************************************* > e-mail: cpurvi(a)mtc.dst.ca.us *or* cpurvi(a)mtc.ca.gov > or cpurvis(a)mtc.dst.ca.us *or* cpurvis(a)mtc.ca.gov > Chuck Purvis, AICP > Senior Transportation Planner/Analyst, Planning Section > Metropolitan Transportation Commission > 101 Eighth Street, Oakland, CA 94607-4700 > (510) 464-7731 (voice) (510) 464-7848 (fax) > WWW: http://www.mtc.ca.gov/ (New Address: FEB1398) > MTC DataMart & InfoMart: > http://www.mtc.ca.gov/facts_and_figures/datamart.htm > MTC FTP Site: ftp://ftp.abag.ca.gov/pub/mtc/planning/ > Personal WWW: http://home.earthlink.net/~clpurvis/ > *******************************************************

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] Census 2000 News

by ed c

Subject: Census 2000 News Alert Date: Tue, 12 May 1998 18:27:12 -0400 From: Keri Monihan <kmonihan(a)ccmc.org> May 12, 1998 NEWS ALERT House Census Panel Challenges Portrayal of 1990 Census as a Failure Hearing Scheduled to Review Data Collection on Census 'Long Form' At a May 5 hearing to review the results of the 1990 census, the chairman of the congressional census oversight panel suggested that the last decennial count was not the failure portrayed by many stakeholders. Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chairman of the Subcommittee on the Census, called 1990 "a pretty good census, the second most accurate in census history" because it counted 98.4 percent of the population. On the other hand, the chairman said, "[s]ampling was the failure in 1990." Wade Henderson, executive director of the Leadership Conference on Civil Rights, disagreed, noting that the 1990 census was the first "in five decades [to be] less accurate than its predecessor" and that the "differential undercount was the highest ever recorded." "To those who are willing to settle for similar results in 2000," Mr. Henderson asked, "how will we explain this to persons who are among the undercounted?" He also reminded the subcommittee that many of their colleagues, both Republicans and Democrats, had called the 1990 census a failure and supported the use of sampling methods to correct the undercount at that time. The subcommittee also heard from a panel of two statisticians and one demographer. Dr. Jerry Coffey, a mathematical statistician retired from OMB; Dr. Philip Stark, Professor of Statistics at UC Berkeley; and Kenneth Darga, a demographer with the State of Michigan, said that based on their review of Census Bureau evaluations of the 1990 census provided by the subcommittee, they believed the methods used to measure how many people were missed were too flawed to give an accurate result. Dr. Stark said that the Bureau's undercount figures reflected more problems with the methods themselves than an actual undercount. "Adjustment puts in far more error than it takes out," Dr. Stark concluded. Dr. Coffey said that the larger sample for the post-census quality check survey would not solve the problems of statistical errors in the adjustment methods. Dr. Stark was quoted in The Washington Times on May 6 as saying that he disagreed with the findings of several National Academy of Sciences panels because "I place more trust on evidence than on letterheads. There is no data and no mathematical theory to support the use of sampling in this way." The subcommittee did not invite witnesses who believe the Census Bureau's methodology is sound or who had participated in the evaluations of the 1990 census. Rep. Thomas Sawyer (D-OH), chairman of the census oversight panel during the 1990 count, and Rep. Thomas Petri (R-WI), senior Republican on the census subcommittee when planning for the 2000 census began, also testified and urged their colleagues to reduce the political rhetoric surrounding the census. Congressional hearing notice: The House Subcommittee on the Census will hold a hearing on Thursday, May 21, to review the proposed questions that will be asked on the so-called 'short' and 'long' forms in the 2000 census. The hearing will begin at 1:00 p.m., in Room 2247 Rayburn House Office Building. The subcommittee has not yet announced a witness list. Race and ethnicity update: The Census Bureau's various advisory committees will hold a joint meeting on June 3 to discuss the tabulation of multiple responses to the race question in the 2000 census and other surveys. A task force set up by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has been working to develop standards for tabulating the data when respondents check off more than one race. OMB decided last October, as part of a comprehensive review of its policy on racial and ethnic categories, to allow more than one response when Federal agencies collect data on race. The day-long advisory committee meeting, which is open to the public, will take place at the Holiday Inn Hotel & Suites, 625 First St., Alexandria, VA. Please call Carol McDaniel (301/457-2308) at the Census Bureau for more information. Legal update: Several new parties have weighed in on the side of plaintiffs challenging the constitutionality of sampling in the census. The State of Wisconsin and more than a dozen organizations, including Americans for Tax Reform and the American Conservative Union, filed amicus curiae briefs in the lawsuit filed by the House of Representatives at the direction of Speaker Newt Gingrich. Wisconsin sued to prevent an adjustment of the 1990 census, fearing the loss of a congressional seat to California. Population projections show that the state is likely to lose a congressional district following the 2000 census. The Pennsylvania counties of Bucks and Delaware, and DuPage County, Illinois, have moved to intervene in Glavin v. Clinton, which also asks the courts to rule that the Constitution does not permit sampling. Cobb County, Georgia, is an original plaintiff in Glavin. More than two dozen Georgia counties sued the government during the 1990 census to force a correction of the undercount using sampling methods. The post-census survey showed that Bucks and Delaware Counties were overcounted in 1990. Stakeholder activities: The chair of the 2000 Census Advisory Committee, Mayor Ann Azari (Ft. Collins, CO) sent a letter on April 17 to Commerce Secretary William M. Daley, expressing concerns raised by committee members at their March quarterly meeting. Referring to ongoing debates over key census issues, Mayor Azari said that the "credibility" of both the Census Bureau and the census process were at stake and urged "reinforcement that the Census Bureau is a credible, capable, professional organization [that] is the best in class at what they do." Noting the continued uncertainty over how the next census will be taken, the Advisory Committee urged the Secretary to provide comprehensive information on the census process to Congress so that an "intelligent and informed" decision on census methods could be made. Azari also said that new census methods have been the subject of controversy in the past, noting that Congress questioned the transition to a mail-based census in 1970 because the procedures hadn't been tested on a national scale. The Census Bureau, Azari wrote, "does have a history of innovation." The committee also encouraged the prompt nomination of a permanent Bureau director and attention to the "basic building blocks," such as address lists and promotion, that are needed to take a good census. The next quarterly meeting of the 2000 Census Advisory Committee will be June 11-12, at Census Bureau headquarters in Suitland, MD. The meeting is open to the public; however, if you plan to attend, please contact Ms. Pat Ellis at 301-457-2095 to ensure proper clearance and to obtain an agenda. The Subcommittee on the Census has notified us that Chairman Dan Miller will lead a discussion sponsored by The Heritage Foundation entitled, "Virtual Representation: Is Census Sampling Good Enough?" Matthew Glavin, President of the Southeastern Legal Foundation and lead plaintiff in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of sampling in the census, and Lee Price, Chief Economist (and former Acting Under Secretary), Department of Commerce, will respond to the chairman's remarks. The event will take place on May 19, at 12:00 p.m., at the Heritage Foundation offices. Please call Paul Love at 202-675-1752, if you would like to attend or for further information. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at (202) 434-8756 or, by e-mail, at <TerriAnnL(a)aol.com>. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

27 years, 2 months

[CTPP] puma question?

by Gustavo Baez

Hello everyone: Does somebody knows if the geographical boundary for the 'puma' field in the housing unit record correspond to the same geographical unit for 'powpuma' field (place of work puma) in the person record? If not, do you where to find equivalence table between county and powpuma, or county and puma? Thank you for your cooperation, Gustavo A. Baez Senior Transportation Planer North Central Texas Council of Governments Email: gbaez(a)nctcog.dst.tx.us

27 years, 2 months

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