New subject: Trends in Transit Commuting, 2019-2021

20 Sep 2022

Wendell:

You’re correct. The OMB added Stanislaus (Modesto MSA) and Merced Counties to the “San
Jose-San Francisco-Oakland CSA” originally in their OMB Bulletin No. 18-04 (9/14/2018).
So, the older ACS data, up until 2018, used the older CSA definitions; the 2019-2021 data
uses the new CSA definitions reflected in the OMB 18-04 and OMB 20-01.

Maybe there’s a crosswalk that shows changes in the MSAs, CSAs, MiSA, over the years? How
different are the geographic areas as defined in OMB 18-04 vs OMB 20-01?

Too bad they kept the same names as before. That’s confusing. Although the “San Jose-San
Francisco-Oakland-Modesto-Merced CSA” is a bit awkward.

Total Population, San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland CSA:
2017 = 8,837,789 (12 county)
2018 = 8,841,475 (12 county)
2019 = 9,665,887 (14 county)
2020 = 9,619,738 (14 county)
2021 = 9,545,921 (14 county)

The CSA data I posted in my e-mail and tweets is accurate, but is reflective of the new
14-County SF Bay Area.

Grrrr. The Census Bureau really needs to have an “MPO Geographic Summary Level”!!!

I need to update my 9/18/2017 blog post “The ABCs of Defining Metropolis” It’s about
defining the Bay Area, 1950-2017.
https://censusmaven.wordpress.com/2017/09/18/the-abcs-of-defining-metropoli…
<https://censusmaven.wordpress.com/2017/09/18/the-abcs-of-defining-metropolis/> 
Anybody remember SMSAs? 

(memo to self: maybe check the land area of the CSA when looking at multiple years, say,
2006 to 2021. If the land area changes between years, maybe the region “has grown” in
terms of new counties added?)

Chuck

...
  On Sep 20, 2022, at 1:48 PM, Demographia Stl
&lt;demographia(a)gmail.com&gt; wrote:

 Charles...

 I believe that Stanislaus and Merced counties are also in the San Jose-SF CSA. Please see
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bulletin-20-01.pdf
<https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Bulletin-20-01.pdf>. 

 Best,
 Wendell Cox

 On Tue, Sep 20, 2022 at 3:27 PM Charles Purvis &lt;clpurvis(a)att.net
<mailto:clpurvis@att.net>> wrote:
 I’m pasting together my set of tweets from yesterday and today. Editing and embellishing
as I go along. Lots of information here; and a lot more work to do.

 TRENDS IN TRANSIT COMMUTING, 2019-2021

 I'm pivoting focus from work-at-home to transit commuting #ACSData
<https://twitter.com/hashtag/ACSData?src=hashtag_click> 

  Including 2020 Experimental Data for a change. 

  Work-at-home commuters tripled between 2019 and 2021. 

 Transit commuting declined by 51 percent between 2019 and 2021.

 (Bicycling-to-work and walking to work are published/available for 2019 and 2021, but not
for 2020. I may want to update this table using PUMS data for 2020-Experimental Weights)

 <Table A transit.png>

 The 51 percent decrease in transit commuters, from the #ACS
<https://twitter.com/hashtag/ACS?src=hashtag_click> tracks well with ridership data
complied by
 @APTA_Transit <https://twitter.com/APTA_Transit>

 2019-2021 APTA is showing a 53% drop in riders, 2019-2020, and a 4% rebound, 2020-2021. 

 APTA is also showing a 36.4% increase in Q2 ridership '22 vs '21. Good!

 The #ACSData <https://twitter.com/hashtag/ACSData?src=hashtag_click> transit
commuters for 2020 might actually be too high? 

 (My general recollection is that work commutes comprise 40 percent of a region’s transit
boardings. So, perhaps, we’ve seen an even more massive decrease in non-work transit
usage, 2019 to 2020; and an even more massive recovery in non-work transit usage,
2020-2021 and into 2022!)

 Still, however the 51 percent decrease in transit commuters, 2019 to 2021, is staggering.

  Next years release of the 2022 #ACS
<https://twitter.com/hashtag/ACS?src=hashtag_click> should hopefully follow the
ridership recovery trends shown by
 @APTA_Transit <https://twitter.com/APTA_Transit>

 <Table B transit.png>

 State-level results: New York has the highest number of transit commuters, 2019 and 2021.

 88% of the nation's transit commuters reside in these 15 states. 

 Washington State shows the steepest decline, 71% drop

 (Why rank by number of transit commuters in 2021? This is because the market size really
matters here. Large transit markets is where we have the highest investment in public
transportation. Follow the numbers on transit commuters!)

 <Table C transit.png>

 Transit Commuting by County-of-Residence

 Four largest transit commute markets are the Boroughs of NYC. 

 Steepest declines in San Francisco County, CA and King County, WA (-74%)

 Other counties showing steep decreases: District of Columbia (-69 percent) and Cook
County, Illinois (-61 percent).

 <Table D transit.png>

 Transit Commuting by Place-of-Residence

 New York City has 36% of nation's transit commuters in 2021. 

  Steepest declines are in Seattle (-76%) and San Francisco (-74%). 

  Yonkers showed least decrease (-19%), 2019 to 2021.

 <Table E transit.png>

 Trends in US Transit Commuting, 2019-2021, continued. 

 Combined Statistical Areas (CSA) or "Mega-Region” 

 The 31-county New York region had 47% of nation's transit commuters in 2021. 

 CORRECTION: The 23-county NY region is for the MSA. The CSA comprises 31 counties!!
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_statistical_areas
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_statistical_areas>

 The 12-county San Jose mega-region had a 75% decrease in transit commuting. San Jose is
the largest city by total population in the Bay Area, followed by #2 San Francisco and #3
Oakland. The Bay Area neighbor counties included in the CSA are Santa Cruz, San Benito
(Hollister) and San Joaquin (Stockton). They’re a part of the Bay Area due to their high
share (>15 %) of commuters working in the central Bay Area.

 <Table F transit.png>

 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are either stand alone metro areas, or parts of larger
CSAs.

 The five-county San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley MSA showed a 76% drop in transit
commuters. The MSA includes: San Francisco, San Mateo, Marin, Alameda and Contra Costa
Counties.

 The Sea-Tac metro area is showing a 72 percent decrease in transit commuting, 2019-2021.

 <Table G transit.png>

 Transit commuting by Congressional District. 

 13 of the 15 districts with largest transit commutes are in New York City. 

 Rounding out top 15 are districts in Boston and Philadelphia.

 <Table H transit.png>
 Urbanized Areas ranked by transit commuters in 2021. 

 Just the urban portion of metro areas, omitting rural areas within the metro. 

 The New York UA has 46 percent of the nation's transit commuters in 2021. / / End of
thread

 335, <Table I transit.png>

 #################################

 Ranking PUMAs by Number of Resident Transit Commuters, 2021.

 I did check out the 2,378 PUMAs in the US. Of the top 50 PUMAs in the US (based on
transit commuters, 2021), 45 are in NEW YORK CITY. Two are in Hudson County, NJ (#33,
#42); one is in Westchester County, NY (Yonkers, #46); and two are in Chicago (#47, #50).
It’s so very clear that New York dominates the United States public transportation
market!

 That’s all for today.

 My r scripts for pulling this data is shared, here:

 https://github.com/chuckpurvis/r_scripts/blob/main/ACS_Transit_Focus_2019_2…
<https://github.com/chuckpurvis/r_scripts/blob/main/ACS_Transit_Focus_2019_2021.R>
 https://github.com/chuckpurvis/r_scripts/blob/main/ACS_Transit_Focus_contd_…
<https://github.com/chuckpurvis/r_scripts/blob/main/ACS_Transit_Focus_contd_2019_2021.R>

 Feel free to adapt, correct, use these scripts. 

 Any additional work on charting this information, say, with the R package, ggplot2, would
be very welcome!

 Follow me on twitter: @charleypurvis

 Chuck Purvis
 Hayward, California
 ###################################################################################

 _______________________________________________
 CTPP mailing list -- ctpp(a)listserv.transportation.org
<mailto:ctpp@listserv.transportation.org>
 To unsubscribe send an email to ctpp-leave(a)listserv.transportation.org
<mailto:ctpp-leave@listserv.transportation.org>

 -- 
 -- 
 Wendell Cox  +1.618 632 8507 
 Demographia | Wendell Cox Consultancy - St. Louis Missouri-Illinois CSA
 Founding Senior Fellow, Urban Reform Institute <https://urbanreforminstitute.org/>
(Houston)
 Senior Fellow, Frontier Centre for Public Policy <https://fcpp.org/> (Winnipeg)
 Contributing Editor newgeography.com <http://www.newgeography.com/>
 www.demographia.com <http://www.demographia.com/> (principal website)
 Demographia International Housing Affordability <http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf>
 Demographia  <http://demographia.com/worldua.pdf>World Urban Areas
<http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf>
 Urban Reform Institute Standard of Living Index
<https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.188.149/be6.064.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/URI-2020-Standard-of-Living-Index.pdf>

 _______________________________________________
 CTPP mailing list -- ctpp(a)listserv.transportation.org
 To unsubscribe send an email to ctpp-leave(a)listserv.transportation.org 

Re: Trends in Transit Commuting, 2019-2021