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[CTPP] census 2000 bulletin--long but interesting

by ed christopher

********** C E N S U S 2 0 0 0 B U L L E T I N ********** Vol. 3 - No. 5 March 17, 1999 The following is the text of a letter from Commerce Secretary William M. Daley sent yesterday (March 16) to U.S. Rep. Dan Burton, R-Ind., chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Government Reform, and U.S. Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Calif., the ranking member of the same committee, regarding the administration's position on seven bills related to Census 2000: "Tomorrow, the Government Reform Committee is scheduled to mark up seven bills related to the conduct of the Decennial Census in 2000. While I know we share a common goal of ensuring that Census 2000 is the most accurate and cost-effective Decennial possible, the Department of Commerce must strongly oppose legislation that would mandate a post census local review, require the printing of short census forms in 34 languages, and mandate a second mailing of census forms. "According to the Director of the Census Bureau, Kenneth Prewitt, and the professionals at the Census Bureau, these three bills would reduce the accuracy and seriously disrupt the schedule of Census 2000. Based on the attached detailed analysis of the legislation provided by Dr. Prewitt, if this legislation were presented to the President, I would recommend that he veto it. "The Census Bureau is already working on many of the issues that these and the other four bills address. For example, the Census Bureau is not designed to manage a grant program, but it is working to increase partnerships with local governments and tribal and non-profit organizations to increase participation in Census 2000. In addition, we expect to seek additional funding for a variety of other activities. And we would appreciate assistance in making it possible for more individuals to take temporary census jobs without losing their government benefits. "Thank you for this opportunity to present our views on the legislation under consideration by your Committee. I look forward to continuing to work with you and other members of Congress to ensure that Census 2000 is the most accurate census possible." Sincerely, William M. Daley (signed) Attachment (see attached file below) _____________________________________________________________________ For further information about Census 2000 Bulletins, contact J. Paul Wyatt of the Public Information Office on 301-457-3052 (fax: 301-457-3670; e-mail: pwyatt(a)census.gov). MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY FROM: Kenneth Prewitt Director, Bureau of the Census SUBJECT: Census Bureau Position on Bills Concerning 2000 Census As you are aware, seven bills concerning the 2000 census have recently been approved by the Subcommittee on the Census and are pending before the Committee on Government Reform for consideration. At your request, this memorandum presents the Census Bureau's analysis of those bills. While I understand that these bills were introduced with a view to improving the 2000 Census, their consequences for an orderly, timely and accurate census in 2000 are just short of disastrous. The Bureau is at a stage in the process where several of the changes to the Operational Plan proposed by Chairman Miller would seriously undermine the ability of the Bureau to complete an accurate and timely census. Were these bills to become law, the Congress would either have to significantly delay the starting day of Census 2000 or require the Census Bureau to field an operational plan which in our judgement would decrease accuracy levels. The Census Bureau believes that the plan presented to the Administration and the Congress will achieve the most accurate results possible in the time frame available for planning and implementing Census 2000. Further, the Census Bureau does not believe that the Subcommittee bills will reduce the differential undercounts as effectively as will the Operational Plan that we have presented. The bill with the most serious potential consequences is H.R. 472, the "Local Census Quality Check Act." It would mandate an operational change to the Census 2000 Plan which is neither timely, effective, nor cost-efficient and would return us to inadequate 1990 operations that have now been substantially improved upon. Since the Bureau recognizes the importance of local government participation, we have established a program of local participation in address accuracy and boundary readjustments which we believe is superior to the 1990 Post Census Local Review (PCLR) program. The Census 2000 Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) vastly expands both the interaction between local governmental units and the Bureau and the time local governments are given to verify and correct addresses and boundaries. To date, twice as many local governments are participating in LUCA compared to PCLR in 1990. Notably, these governments cover 85 percent of all addresses in the country. In addition, our plan includes a program to validate the boundaries for every local and tribal government in the United States and a new construction program that will resolve most of the address problems uncovered in the 1990 PCLR. This new program which is currently being reviewed by our outside advisory groups, will give local governments the opportunity to add new housing units to the census Master Address File up to Census Day, April 1, 2000. We strongly believe that the Census Bureau's current plan is more efficient, more effective, more timely, and will produce greater accuracy in the time frame mandated for us by law than would the proposal in H.R. 472. The Bureau is also deeply concerned about H.R. 929, the "2000 Census Language Barrier Removal Act." This bill would require the Secretary of Commerce to print the Census 2000 short form in at least 33 languages other than English. The Census Bureau would have to send a questionnaire in one of these languages upon request. Were H.R. 929 to become law, the entire census questionnaire workflow for receipt, image capture, transcription, and key-from-paper would have to be modified. We would have to renegotiate our largest contracts including nearly 20 printing contracts; the contracts for the Telephone Questionnaire Assistance program; Data Capture and, Data Capture Service Centers. An extensive amount of planning and evaluation has gone into developing a system for mailing a precensus letter to 120 million households and for announcing the availability of questionnaires in six languages including English, which account for 99 percent of all households in the U.S. The wording on this pre-census letter has been carefully designed to minimize confusion and maximize cooperation. If H.R. 929 became law, we would have to figure out how to announce the availability of forms in another 27 languages, which may be of concern to approximately one million households, without confusing the remaining 119 million households. Let me emphasize that the Bureau welcomes interest in this most difficult area. Currently, we plan to be as linguistically friendly as we possibly can. We are not indifferent to the 1 percent of U.S. households, which speak not just another 27 languages but rather as many as 130 or more languages. To reach them, we have developed an integrated language program that involves 15,000 paid temporary staff positions in the Questionnaire Assistance Centers, drawn from a wide range of language communities, and will prepare 15 million assistance guides in several dozen languages. We have also included a language focus in our partnership agreements with community organizations. The third bill that concerns the Bureau is H.R. 928, the "2000 Census Mail Outreach Improvement Act." This bill would require the Secretary of Commerce to conduct a second mailing by sending replacement questionnaires either to all households in the original mailing (a "blanket" mailing), or to each household not responding to the original mailing (a "targeted" mailing). The Bureau has decided not to implement either a blanket or targeted second mailing. After thorough analysis, much deliberation, and an evaluation of our Dress Rehearsal experience, we concluded that the value of a second mailing is substantially outweighed by the risks that it introduces in other census operations. We originally considered conducting a targeted second mailing, but printing vendors informed us they would require at least a month to send a second mailing targeted only to nonresponding housing units. A targeted second mailing would, thus, have significantly delayed the start of the nonresponse followup operation. Our experience and research indicate that the longer the delay between Census Day and the start of nonresponse followup, the more inaccuracies are introduced to the census data. We also considered a blanket second mailing, that is, mailing a second questionnaire to every housing unit, whether or not we had received a response to the original mailing. A National Academy of Sciences panel advised us that a blanket second mailing could reduce the accuracy of the census because of duplication. We nevertheless tested a blanket mailing in Dress Rehearsal. While it did increase the overall mail response rate, the evaluations indicate that about 40 percent of the households that mailed back a second questionnaire had also mailed back the initial questionnaire. Thus, the Dress Rehearsal processing had to be extended three weeks to handle the complexity introduced by the large volume of duplicate forms. For Census 2000, a work load of this magnitude would significantly delay data processing operations and potentially introduce significant errors into the data. In addition, our dress rehearsal experience indicated that the public was confused by the second mailing. The fourth bill that causes the Bureau concern is H.R. 1009, the "2000 Census Community Participation Enhancement Act." This bill would provide for grants to units of general local government, tribal organizations, and public and private nonprofit organizations. The Census Bureau has a commitment to fostering the productive involvement of local communities in Census 2000, and to this end, it has launched the Partnership Program, the Complete Count Committees, the Local Update of Census Address Program, the Census in the Schools Program, and more. And we welcome initiatives that would provide additional resources to units of general local government, tribal organizations, and public or private nonprofit organizations that could be directed to increasing participation rates in Census 2000. However, the Census Bureau is not equipped to manage a competitive grant program at this late stage in the decennial cycle. All of our human and financial resources are properly focused on the sequence of activities set forth in our Operational Plan, as submitted to the Census Subcommittee in January 1999 and updated on February 23, 1999. Based on nearly 20 years of experience in the private foundation sector, I speak with some knowledge about the complexities of managing competitive grant programs, made even more complex if they have a matching provision. It takes expertise to design, manage, monitor, and assess such programs, and it would be imprudent for the Congress to presume that the Census Bureau has or could quickly acquire that expertise. Moreover, there could be tens of thousands of applications. Either the amount of funds available per awardee would be so low as to raise questions about the sincerity of this effort, or there would be many more losers than winners. Either outcome places the Bureau in an untenable position. We will need strong partnerships even with those governments and local organizations that were not successful in the competition, but disappointment on their part could easily undermine what has become a very healthy partnership. Two additional bills have been introduced and voted through Subcommittee for full committee consideration: H.R. 1010 and H.R. 683. The Bureau does not have serious concerns about either of these two bills, so long as their implementation in their final form does not impose major changes to the existing operational plan. H.R. 1010 would authorize $300 million for FY 2000 to carry out promotional, outreach, and marketing activities in connection with Census 2000. It would effectively triple the Census Bureau's current projected paid advertising budget. We strongly agree that the advertising and promotion budgets will need to be increased. Currently, we are reviewing our advertising and marketing efforts in order to produce the most effective results. In our operational plan for a census using traditional census-taking methods, which we submitted to the Congress on January 14, 1999, we noted that we plan to expand our Partnership Program and expand and enhance the paid advertising and promotion program. Both of these programs are geared toward greater public awareness of Census 2000, which in turn should lead to greater public response and cooperation. Specifically, we plan to expand the Partnership Program to increase Bureau partnership staffing and assistance. This expansion will allow the Bureau to form additional partnerships with both non-governmental organizations that represent historically hard-to-enumerate groups and with governmental entities, including tribal governments, that have not yet taken the opportunity to be included in the partnership program. Already, more than 10,000 partnership agreements have been signed. The expanded program includes "in-kind" funding to support partners by providing services, such as printing locally designed promotional materials for Census 2000. Moreover, we plan to expand and enhance paid advertising and promotion by developing and implementing additional advertising messages. One additional message, which we will use before Census Day, will target information about community benefits to areas with historically low participation in the census. Another message will seek the public's cooperation with enumerators during the nonresponse followup operation. This is increasingly important now that we must make follow-up visits to 45 million housing units, instead of 30 million. Nontraditional advertising methods also would be pursued. Fact sheets and promotional materials will be available on a larger scale with the expanded program. And finally, we plan to conduct special publicity events that would bring the Census 2000 message to communities across the Nation. As you can see, H.R. 1010 has the potential to assist the Bureau in these endeavors. We also plan to expand the "Census in the Schools" program to allow all schools to participate instead of only those in selected areas. We have just learned that the committee intends to markup H.R. 1058 without benefit of a Subcommittee hearing. The Census Bureau has not had an opportunity to analyze H.R. 1058 but would ask that the committee help us ensure we receive full funding necessary to meet the objective of 100% participation. H.R. 683, the "Decennial Census Improvement Act of 1999," would allow recipients of any Federally funded benefits, including welfare recipients, veterans, American Indians, and others to take temporary census jobs without losing their Federal benefits. We appreciate any effort to help broaden the potential applicant pool for temporary census jobs. Hiring the numbers of workers we will need to conduct Census 2000 will be a monumental challenge and we will need all the help we can get. We have already secured from the Office of Personnel Management a waiver for the Federal civilian and military retirees, similar to the 1990 waiver. We have also secured a waiver from the Department of Housing and Urban Development for recipients of public housing and American Indian housing assistance. It is our understanding that individual states and American Indian tribes would have the authority to determine how income from working for the Census Bureau would be counted for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program, consistent with the new welfare reform law. We are working closely with the states to bring welfare recipients into our workforce and, indeed, to look for other ways that would make it easier for people to come to work for us. We have already hired some 3,500 welfare recipients to work on our address-listing and Dress Rehearsal programs. This is the largest number of welfare- to-work employees in any agency or department of the federal government. Thank you for the opportunity to comment.

26 years, 6 months

[CTPP] Census 2000 News Alert

by ed christopher

From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> House Committee Considers Legislation Affecting Census Operations The House Subcommittee on the Census has approved several bills "designed to provide the additional tools needed to improve the 2000 census," according to Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL), who opposes the Census Bureau's plan to use scientific sampling methods as a quality check of the initial population tally. The full Committee on Government Reform will vote on the bills at a "mark-up" on March 17. The committee cancelled plans for a hearing that day featuring Commerce Secretary William Daley and Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt. Following is a brief description of the legislation considered by the census subcommittee: 1. "Local Census Quality Check Act" (H.R. 472) H.R. 472 requires the Census Bureau to implement a post census local review (PCLR) similar to the 1990 program. The Bureau must give local governments 45 working days to review housing unit counts and jurisdictional boundaries before the census figures become final. (The 1990 program did not include a review of preliminary population counts.) By November 1, 2000, the Bureau must investigate all challenges to the preliminary counts and notify local governments of the results. The bill was introduced on February 2 by Rep. Dan Miller (R-FL), chairman of the Subcommittee on the Census. The subcommittee held a hearing to review H.R. 472 on February 11. Several local officials and organizations, including the National Association of Towns and Townships and the National Association of Development Organizations, supported reinstatement of a post census local review in 2000; however, they did not all endorse the specific requirements of H.R. 472. Richmond Mayor Timothy Kaine, testifying on behalf of the U.S. Conference of Mayors (USCM), said that while he would not decline an opportunity to review preliminary data, PCLR did not address the mayors' concerns about the population undercount. He reiterated USCM's support for a quality-check survey to correct undercounts identified in the initial tally. Following the hearing, the panel approved H.R. 472 by a 5 - 0 vote. The Democratic members did not participate in the 'mark-up.' Invited to testify at a subsequent hearing on March 2, Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt told the subcommittee that the bill "would mandate a program that Census professionals believe will not effectively and efficiently contribute to the overall accuracy of the census." 2. "Decennial Census Improvement Act of 1999" (H.R. 683): Sponsored by Rep. Carrie Meek (D-FL), H.R. 683 waives consideration of income earned as a temporary census employee in determining eligibility for federal benefits (or state and local benefits financed in part with federal funds) or in determining the amount of a federal or military pension. The bill's supporters hope it will result in the hiring of more enumerators who live in the neighborhoods they will canvass. For the 1990 census, Congress enacted similar legislation affecting federal and military retirees, and some agencies administratively agreed to disregard census income earned by recipients of federal benefits. The census subcommittee reviewed H.R. 683 at a March 2 hearing and approved the measure with bipartisan support on March 4. 3. "2000 Census Mail Outreach Improvement Act" (H.R. 928): H.R. 928 requires the Census Bureau to send a replacement questionnaire either to all households, or to households that don't respond to the first mailing. After determining that 40 percent of the second forms mailed back in last year's dress rehearsal were duplicates, the Census Bureau decided not to include a replacement questionnaire in its revised Census 2000 plan. Dr. Prewitt said such a requirement would "significantly delay data processing operations and potentially introduce significant errors into the data" by delaying the start of follow-up visits to unresponsive households by six weeks. Rep. Miller introduced H.R. 928 on March 2 but did not hold a hearing on it. The subcommittee approved the bill on March 11. 4. "2000 Census Language Barrier Removal Act" (H.R. 929): H.R. 929 requires the Census Bureau to print and make available questionnaires in 33 languages (other than English) specified in the bill and in Braille. The Bureau's Census 2000 plan includes questionnaires in English, Spanish, Chinese,Vietnamese, Korean, and Tagalog, and language guides in the 27 other languages mentioned in the legislation. Employees at questionnaire assistance centers in the hardest-to-count communities would help non-English speaking people fill out the forms. Also introduced by Rep. Miller on March 2, H.R. 929 was approved by the census panel on March 11 without a hearing. Dr. Prewitt told the subcommittee before the bill was introduced that this new requirement would force the Bureau to renegotiate many of its major contracts, modify data processing equipment, and revise written materials with the benefit of testing. These changes, he said, could "put the census at risk." 5. "2000 Census Community Participation Enhancement Act" (H.R. 1009): H.R. 1009 authorizes the Secretary of Commerce to develop a matching grant program for 2000 census education, outreach and promotion, and partnership activities. All local and tribal governments (including the U.S. territories) and nonprofit public and private organizations would be eligible to apply for a grant, provided the applicant makes available 50 percent of the grant amount in nonfederal funds. The Census Bureau's 12 regional offices would be responsible for administering the grant program. The bill authorizes $26 million in fiscal year 2000 for this program. H.R. 1009, sponsored by Rep. Miller, was introduced on March 4. The census subcommittee approved the bill on March 11 after rejecting an amendment offered by the panel's senior Democrat, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY), to shift responsibility for administering the grant program to a private foundation and to increase the amount of money available for the grants. Rep. Maloney noted that the $26 million funding ceiling would give each of the nation's 39,000 local governments an average grant under $700, even before taking into account applications from community-based organizations. At a March 2 hearing, Dr. Prewitt said the Bureau has no grant-making experience, but he encouraged private foundations to make grants to local communities for outreach and promotion activities. 6. H.R. 1010 (no short title) authorizes $300 million in fiscal year 2000 for census promotional, outreach and marketing activities. The bill's sponsor, Rep. Miller, had originally suggested quadrupling the advertising budget to $400 million. The Census Bureau's original plan included $100 million for a paid advertising campaign and another $140 million for other marketing efforts. When he unveiled the revised census plan last month to comply with the recent Supreme Court decision on the use of sampling, Dr. Prewitt said the Bureau would expand the entire marketing and promotion effort. The census subcommittee approved H.R. 1010 on March 11. 7. "Census in the Schools Promotion Act" (H.R. 1058): H.R. 1058 would expand the Census in the Schools program by requiring the Bureau to send a full program packet to every school. Scholastic Inc. developed the program, which the Census Bureau unveiled last week. The Bureau had planned to target schools in the hardest-to-count communities and make the materials available to all educators through the World Wide Web. Dr. Prewitt told the census subcommittee at a March 2 hearing that the Bureau had expanded the program's original scope to include every school in the country, including those on American Indian reservations. Rep. Miller introduced H.R. 1058 on March 10. The subcommittee has not voted on the measure. The Government Reform Committee will consider all of these bills at a business meeting on March 17, at 10 a.m. in room 2154 Rayburn House Office Building. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

26 years, 6 months

RE: [CTPP] Where is TAZ-UP? (Originally sent 2/25, resending 3/5)

by Windham Hill

What are you talking about, and why did this come to me? -----Original Message----- From: Charles Cook [SMTP:Charles_Cook(a)mma.org] Sent: Friday, March 05, 1999 7:43 PM To: Elaine.Murakami(a)fhwa.dot.gov Cc: ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net Subject: Re: [CTPP] Where is TAZ-UP? (Originally sent 2/25, resending 3/5) Never received the 2/25 version, but now received two of the 3/5 versions from you.

26 years, 7 months

Re(2): [CTPP] Welcome and Warning

by Charles_Cook＠mma.org

I don't understand your message.

26 years, 7 months

Re: [CTPP] Where is TAZ-UP? (Originally sent 2/25, resending 3/5)

by Charles_Cook＠mma.org

Never received the 2/25 version, but now received two of the 3/5 versions from you.

26 years, 7 months

[CTPP] Welcome and Warning

by Ed Christopher

For those who are wondering why you got email from something called ctpp-news, Welcome. For those who know what ctpp-news is about be warned. Last night we added the email addresses of all of the states and mpos that are participating in the TAZ Update program to the ctpp-news listserve. That brought out list to some 437 subscribers. Over the next few days we will be shaking out the bad addresses, correcting others and seeing how the list software functions. For those who are new to all of this make sure to check out the web site hosted by the TRB Subcommittee on Census Data for Transportation Planning at http://www.mcs.com/~berwyned/census/ At the site are copies of our newsletter "ctpp status report" and other topical information. There is also a link to a page that tells you how to post, resign or be added to the listserve. To post to the listserve send your message to ctpp-news(a)chrispy.net To delete yourself from the list send me an email or do it automatically by sending an email to majordomo(a)chrispy.net stating "unsubscribe ctpp-news" in the body of the message. Make sure to send the email from the address that you want to unsubscribe. If you have any questions about this feel free to drop me an email or just call. Finally, if you are getting duplicate messages please let me know. ed christopher berwyned(a)mcs.com 202-366-0412

26 years, 7 months

[CTPP] Where is TAZ-UP? (Originally sent 2/25, resending 3/5)

by Murakami

To CTPP contacts: Tom Mank has taken a new job in New Hampshire and is no longer working on CTPP. We will have a replacement soon. In the meantime, Jerry Everett and I (Elaine Murakami) are handling the work. We are running a little behind on the production and distribution of TAZ-UP. We expect that we will start shipping packages around March 12. (Both Jerry and Elaine will be at the Boston Transportation Planning Applications conference from March 7-11). Because the Census Bureau does not yet have a complete set of TIGER, the shipping of TAZ-UP will flow as the delivery of the TIGER files to us. TAZ-UP REQUIRES the use of TIGER/Line 98. However, if you already have a shape file with your TAZs defined with another geographic BASE, you can bring in the file as a reference to help you define the TAZ using TIGER/Line 98. We are trying to set up a ONE phone number for CTPP and will let you know the number as soon as possible. ( The number is 202-366-5000 as of 3/5/99) Thanks for your patience. Hope to see you in Boston. Elaine my phone is 202-366-6971

26 years, 7 months

[CTPP] Where is TAZ-UP? (This was originally sent on Feb 25)

by Murakami

26 years, 7 months

[CTPP] Census 2000 News Alert

by Ed Christopher

From: Census2000 <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> Hearing and Document Update Because of recent changes in, or additions to, the schedule for congressional activities relating to the census, we want to provide stakeholders with updated information on these events. We also want to pass along information on how to access new materials of interest to stakeholders. Congressional oversight hearings: The House Subcommittee on the Census will hold a hearing this afternoon to discuss the "America Counts Today (ACT) Initiative," a proposal by Chairman Dan Miller (R-FL) to "enhance traditional enumeration methods." The hearing starts at 2:00 p.m. in room 2203 Rayburn House Office Building. Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt will testify. The subcommittee will also hear from Rep. Carrie Meek (D-FL), sponsor of the "Decennial Census Improvement Act of 1999" (H.R. 683). The bill would allow federal agencies to disregard income earned by temporary census enumerators in determining eligibility for certain federal benefits. The census subcommittee will vote on H.R. 683 at a "mark-up" scheduled for Thursday, March 4, at 9:15 a.m. in room 311 Cannon House Office Building. Congressional appropriations hearings: The House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, State, and The Judiciary has rescheduled its hearing to review the Commerce Department's budget request for Fiscal Year 2000 (FY00), which includes funding for the Census Bureau. Secretary William Daley will appear before the panel, chaired by Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY), on Wednesday, March 3, at 2:00 p.m. in room 2359 Rayburn House Office Building. The hearing originally scheduled for March 4, to review the Census Bureau's funding request in more detail with Director Prewitt, has been postponed. Secretary Daley is scheduled to testify before the counterpart Senate appropriations subcommittee, chaired by Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), on Thursday, March 11, at 10:00 a.m. in room S-146 of The Capitol. Census Monitoring Board: The eight-member Census Monitoring Board will hold a meeting on Monday, March 8, at 9:30 a.m., in the Census Bureau's conference center at its Suitland, MD, headquarters. The agenda for the meeting and any witnesses have not yet been announced. Tabulating race and ethnic data: The Office of Management and Budget's Draft Provisional Guidance on the Implementation of the 1997 Standards for the Collection of Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity can now be found on OMB's web site at <http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/EOP/OMB/html/misc-doc.html>. OMB is accepting comments on the draft guidelines for tabulating multiple responses to the race question in the census and other federal surveys for two months and expects to issue provisional guidance at the end of April. Dress rehearsal evaluation: The Census Bureau has issued a "Report Card: Evaluation of the Standards for Success" on its Census 2000 Dress Rehearsal, conducted in three sites in 1998. The report compares data from various stages of dress rehearsal operations with a set of standards for each site: Columbia, S.C. and surrounding counties; Sacramento, CA; and Menominee County, WI (including the Menominee American Indian Reservation). Key elements for evaluation include the address lists, mailing a replacement questionnaire to all households, the paid advertising campaign, door-to-door follow-up activities, and unduplication of multiple responses from the same household. For more information on the dress rehearsal February 1999 Report Card, please contact the Bureau's Planning, Research, and Evaluation Division at 301/457-3525. Questions about the information contained in this News Alert may be directed to TerriAnn Lowenthal at 202/484-2270 or, by e-mail at <terriann2k(a)aol.com>. Please direct all requests to receive News Alerts, and all changes in address/phone/fax/e-mail, to the Census 2000 Initiative at <Census2000(a)ccmc.org> or 202/326-8700. Please feel free to circulate this information to colleagues and other interested individuals.

26 years, 7 months

[CTPP] C E N S U S 2 0 0 0 B U L L E T I N

by Ed Christopher

********** C E N S U S 2 0 0 0 B U L L E T I N ********** Vol. 3 - No. 4 Feb. 25, 1999 The following statement on Census 2000 was read by Census Bureau Director Kenneth Prewitt at a news conference Wednesday (Feb. 24, 1999) at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C.: "I will make a few general observations and then take your questions. "I start with a word on recent history. The results of the 1990 census did not please the Census Bureau, or the Bush Administration, or the Congress, or governors, mayors, and other state and local officials, or a large number of private and public sector data users, or the American public. It was a costly census; it was less accurate than what the country has a right to expect. The Census Bureau was charged to design a more modern census, one that would reduce the number of Americans who are missed -- either because we cannot find them or because they won't cooperate. It did so. That design, however, quickly became mired in political disputes, was litigated, and a month ago was set aside by the Supreme Court. "The Census Bureau had, of course, planned for that possibility. It had presented an alternative design to the Administration and the Congress in mid-January, before the Court ruling. Based on our recently completed evaluation of our Dress Rehearsal experience, we have further refined that plan. Its principal features are the subject of this press conference. "The Dress Rehearsal tells us two things. "First, however hard we try and whatever the level of resources available, Census 2000 will not count everyone. Moreover, this 'undercount' will not be equally distributed across demographic groups. There is what we refer to as a differential undercount. For instance, in 1990 we counted nearly all white Americans, but only approximately 95 percent of African-Americans and Hispanics, and an even lower rate of Native American Indians. Insofar as these less well counted groups are concentrated in some states, not others; in some cities, not others; in some neighborhoods, not others -- these states, cities, neighborhoods do not get their fair share of either the political or economic benefits allocated on the basis of census numbers. "Second, the Census Bureau's design should include a procedure -- described in the updated summary as the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (ACE) -- that will identify the magnitude and distribution of the differential account, and correct for it. The Dress Rehearsal confirms the statistical soundness of this procedure. Consequently, I have today informed the Secretary of Commerce and the Congress that it is feasible for Census 2000 to include this procedure, and that by doing so we will produce a more accurate and complete census than would otherwise be the case. "Because the Supreme Court ruled that this more accurate number is not to be used for apportionment purposes, our design also includes a major, labor intensive (and expensive) effort to find and enumerate as many Americans as is humanly possible in the time-frame available. In pursuit of this goal, our first and most important effort is to put a census form in the hands of every single household in America. Census 2000 features many improvements and technical innovations not available in 1990 -- for example, a completely re-engineered Master Address File, the most comprehensive ever constructed in U.S. history; first-ever use of paid advertising; intensified partnerships with tens of thousands of local governments, tribal organizations, private groups and non-profit organizations nationally and locally, a census-in-the-schools initiative. "This plan is operationally robust, and will be conducted with complete dedication by the Census Bureau professionals. This said, the apportionment counts are not likely to be an improvement on the 1990 accuracy levels. How can this be? How can you spend more money, mount improved operations, and yet not increase accuracy? Because all the factors that made it difficult to count Americans in prior censuses are today even more present. In more American families, both parents work, making it difficult to find anyone at home. Transient lifestyles are on the rise. People are busy. More people live in irregular housing. Greater numbers of people are linguistically isolated. Large immigrant populations avoid government officials. Census forms must compete with huge flows of junk mail. More persons are cynical about -- or actively hostile to -- any of the works of government. Census 2000 must overcome decreased levels of civic engagement by the American people. In short, the Census Bureau has to work harder to stay in place. We will produce the best apportionment counts that we can; they will not include everyone. "Allow me to summarize the points just covered, so as to leave no ambiguity. Between the 1st of April and 31st of December, the Census Bureau will count (and assign to an address) everyone it possibly can. The results of this effort will meet our obligation to present apportionment counts without the use of modern statistical methods. But the work will not then be finished. Census 2000 will continue its work with an Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation in order to produce more complete and accurate numbers, which will be ready prior to April 1, 2001. It is the task of the Census Bureau top produce the best numbers possible, not to decide how they will be used. The more complete census counts will be made available in a form that allows them to be used, if it is so decided, for redistricting purposes, for determining the allocation of federal funds, and for ongoing statistical and program purposes. Some may describe this as a 'two-number census,' but it in fact is a census that is progressively more complete, more accurate. "I conclude by reminding us all that the census clock ticks -- relentlessly, ceaselessly. In just 372 days the first Census 2000 forms get delivered. Given the lateness of the hour, we must acknowledge the hard reality that we no longer have the luxury of debates about alternative designs, or substitute procedures. No matter how well intentioned, we cannot now take a chance on untested operations or late additions. The largest peacetime mobilization in U.S. history must go forward based on the considered professional judgment of the career scientific and operational experts at the Census Bureau, who stand with me here today. We are up to the task, but only if we are allowed to do the task." For further information about the Census 2000 Bulletins, contact J. Paul Wyatt in the Public Information Office on 301-457-3052 (fax: 301-457-3670; e-mail: pwyatt(a)census.gov).

26 years, 7 months

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